MLB Friday best bets: Expect fireworks in San Diego

MLB Friday best bets: Expect fireworks in San Diego

Thursday night was another great one on the diamond as we swept the board with our best bets. A 3-0 evening pushes our weekly record to 6-1-1.

We’ll look to keep the ball rolling and end the week in style with three more plays for Friday’s card.

Dodgers (+105) @ Padres (-125)

The Dodgers are a scorching hot offensive team that routinely plays in explosive offensive games. In fact, 14 of the their past 15 have featured nine runs or more.

Despite the consistent fireworks we’ve seen, the total in tonight’s game sits at just 8.5. I think that’s a big mistake.

While the Yu Darvish versus Bobby Miller pitching matchup looks strong on the surface, it’s not as good as it seems. Darvish owns a 4.53 ERA on the season and his underlying numbers over the past month are quite ugly.

Quinn Priester – an inexperienced 22-year-old with a 9.19 ERA – is the only projected starter with a higher ball rate than Darvish in the past 30 days. His control issues are a recipe for disaster against this Dodgers offense.

The Dodgers are very good at grinding out walks – their 12.1% walk rate ranks third over the past two weeks – and they absolutely destroy opposing pitchers when getting ahead in counts. And their .384 wOBA against righties over in that span is good for first in the majors.

I don’t think Darvish can slow them down in his current form, nor do I think Miller is in line for a gem against this San Diego attack.

The Padres tied for sixth in wOBA versus righties the past couple of weeks and they only struck out 18.3% of the time – the third-lowest rate in the league. They’re getting on base, they’re hitting for power, and they’re not handing opponents any easy outs.

I expect much more of a track meet than a 4-2 style game and see plenty of value in backing the score to reflect that.

Bet: Over 8.5 (+100, playable to -130)

Luis Severino over 1.5 walks

Severino has been a constant fade for us all season and there’s nothing in the data that warrants a change. He’s walked at least two batters in seven of the past nine games, routinely struggling with his control.

Given those issues, the Houston Astros might be the last team Severino wants to face right now. They’re extremely patient at the plate and will take what opposing pitchers give them. If they have to keep the bats on their shoulders and watch each pitch go by, they have no problem doing just that.

That’s been especially evident of late. The Astros own a sky-high walk rate of 14.1% versus righties over the past two weeks. As you might expect, that leads the league.

Severino needs to pitch with caution against the likes of Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Alex Bregman. He’ll likely miss a lot of corners and miss the plate quite frequently, so look for Severino to issue at least a few free passes once again.

Odds: -115 (playable to -135)

Bryson Stott over 0.5 singles

Luis Arraez. Bo Bichette. Those are the only two everyday players averaging more singles per game than Stott. The Phillies‘ 25-year-old second baseman has piled up 89 singles through 102 contests for an average of 0.87 per game.

For perspective, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Nico Hoerner are two players keeping company with Stott – yet lagging – and they’re respectively priced at -165 and -180 to record singles on Friday. Most of the players in Stott’s range are priced similarly.

At -130, you’re getting a huge discount on Stott in a mouthwatering matchup against Jordan Lyles and the Royals.

Lyles sports a 6.15 ERA on the season and can’t keep opposing batters off the basepaths. I don’t see that changing against Stott, a singles machine who is hitting over .300 against right-handed pitching on the year.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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