MLB Monday best bets: Glasnow to dominate in San Francisco

MLB Monday best bets: Glasnow to dominate in San Francisco

We have a somewhat small nine-game slate ahead of us on Monday night. While there are fewer games than usual, there’s still a ton of value on the board.

Let’s comb through it and take a closer look at three plays that stand out.

Orioles (+120) @ Padres (-140)

The Padres may not be winning a ton of games right now, but it’s not because of their offense.

Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and the other marquee names in their lineup have really started to turn a corner and perform, providing a significant boost to their overall numbers.

San Diego is averaging 5.09 runs per game in August, which puts them just below a powerhouse Rangers attack.

The Orioles aren’t far behind, averaging exactly 5.0 runs per game this month. These offenses are red-hot.

Although the pitching matchup looks pretty good on paper, it’s not as if these arms are untouchable.

Grayson Rodriguez has all the talent in the world but has yet to put it all together. He’s allowed an average of 3.7 earned runs over his past 10 starts and at least two earned runs in four of five since being recalled. The Padres should be able to make some noise against the youngster.

Yu Darvish has pitched better of late, but just a few starts ago, he allowed seven runs to the Pirates. He’s also struggled for a while at home, conceding 18 runs over his past five in San Diego.

With all the offensive talent on the field, this total looks at least half a run too low.

Bet: Over 8.5 (+100)

Framber Valdez under 1.5 walks

Valdez has struggled with walks of late, issuing two free passes in six of his past seven starts. His price has been overcorrected to reflect that, which provides us with an opportunity to buy low.

Although his walk numbers have gone up, he hasn’t thrown many balls. His ball rate over the past month is nearly identical to that of Tyler Glasnow, who has walked eight batters over his past six starts (1.25 per). That’s an encouraging sign.

Perhaps more importantly, Valdez finds himself in a mouthwatering matchup against a Marlins team that simply doesn’t draw walks.

The Marlins have walked 6.2% of their at-bats versus lefties this season, good for dead last in the league.

If we zoom in a little and focus on the past six weeks, the numbers tell the exact same story. Their walk rate against left-handed pitchers sits at 6.1% in that span.

The Marlins don’t grind out many free passes, and Valdez’s control is in a better spot than his recent walk numbers indicate. Back him to get back on track in a prime spot.

Odds: +130 (playable to +100)

Tyler Glasnow over 17.5 outs

The Rays protected Glasnow when he first returned to the lineup, but he appears to be pitching without any restrictions now. He’s thrown at least 93 pitches in four straight games, recording out totals of 18, 21, 21, and 21.

He’s throwing a lot of strikes, his swing and miss rate is through the roof, and he’s not allowing good contact. Glasnow owns a .274 xwOBA and 62.5% ground-ball rate over the past month. The numbers are sparkling across the board.

With Zach Eflin pitching only three innings on Sunday, the Rays had to use five relievers for at least one full inning. They’ll want to preserve the bullpen if possible, which means Glasnow might get an even longer leash.

If that’s not enough to get on board with Glasnow, perhaps this will check the final box: The Giants rank dead last in xwOBA versus righties and second last in ground-ball rate over the past couple of weeks.

They’re likely to have a miserable time generating offense against Glasnow, which should help him complete at least six innings.

Odds: -125 (playable to -135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.


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