MLB Monday best bets: Padres to pounce on Wainwright, Cardinals

We had a disappointing 1-2 night Friday, meaning we ended last week with a 7-5 record.

Let’s take a look at a few plays that stick out on Monday’s card as we look to hit the ground running.

Padres (-200) @ Cardinals (+170)

Death, taxes, and fading Adam Wainwright. The veteran righty continues to struggle mightily as he fights through a miserable ending to a great career.

Wainwright is sporting an absurd 8.61 ERA through 17 starts, and there’s nothing to indicate the bleeding will stop anytime soon.

Wainwright conceded 24 earned runs over his past four starts. What makes those numbers even more alarming is the weak caliber of opponents he’s faced in that time.

Those four starts came against the Pirates, Mets, Royals, and Rockies (away from Coors Field!). If you were to draw a list of four random opponents, you’d be over the moon with that group – yet Wainwright put forth his worst string of games all year.

As disappointing as the Padres have been this season, they’ve hit very well for quite some time. In fact, they slot fourth in xwOBA and second in contact rate over the last 30 days.

Wainwright doesn’t concede a ton of homers. Most of the damage done against him is by teams simply stringing together base hits. With the Padres excelling at making contact and spraying the ball around the park, they seem like the perfect offense to exploit Wainwright.

The Padres should comfortably score three, four, or five-plus runs against Wainwright. That’ll be more than enough support for Blake Snell, who’s conceded more than two runs in a start only twice since May 19.

Bet: Padres F5 -0.5 (-140)

Austin Gomber over 1.5 walks

The Braves are walk machines. Be it elite team discipline or simply growing accustomed to every pitcher trying to tiptoe around their unbelievably potent offense, they’re very good at generating walks, even more so against left-handed pitchers.

Atlanta walked at least twice against each of the six left-handed starters it faced in August, generating 18 total walks (three per). Its success in earning walks is nothing new. If we zoom out a little further, the team has walked at least twice versus eight straight left-handed starters.

There’s reason to believe that trend will continue against Austin Gomber, who’s issued multiple walks in four of his past five outings. With the Braves sporting a walk rate of more than 12% against lefties over the last month, they figure to cause Gomber tons of problems.

Odds: +105 (playable to -120)

Tylor Megill under 15.5 outs

The Rangers are struggling at the plate right now, but I think they’re worth backing in this spot. Tylor Megill completed five innings or fewer in 13 of 19 starts this season and just three of the past 10 overall.

His underlying profile is absolutely littered with red flags – none more so than the .406 xwOBA he allowed over the past 30 days, which is dead last among the day’s projected starters. Yes, even worse than Wainwright and Luis Severino.

Megill is giving up a ton of contact, and his barrel rate is nearly double that of the league average. While the Rangers have cooled of late, they still have Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, and some bats who can kill opponents with their power at any moment.

I don’t see Megill lasting very long in this game.

Odds: -130 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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