MLB Wednesday best bets: Gilbert to shine in Cincinnati

MLB Wednesday best bets: Gilbert to shine in Cincinnati

We had a disappointing 1-2 night to start the week. Kyle Freeland took care of business against the Diamondbacks, completing six innings in Arizona.

Unfortunately, we couldn’t get the second win to turn a profit. The Blue Jays blew out the Athletics but were unable to earn any sort of lead through five innings, and Bryce Miller came just one out shy of his total against the Reds. That’s how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

Let’s take a look at a few of my favorite plays from Wednesday’s card as we look to get back in the win column.

Orioles (-135) @ Angels (+115)

The Orioles have played in a lot of high-scoring games of late. Six of the past seven have featured at least nine runs – including both against the Angels – with 74 runs being scored in aggregate. That’s good for a healthy average of 10.57 per contest.

I like our chances of seeing more offense Wednesday night as the two sides complete the series.

Kyle Gibson is really struggling on the mound. He’s conceded at least three earned runs in five straight starts, allowing 26 in total during that span.

Those horrendous totals are well deserved. Gibson owns a .405 xwOBA over the past month, which ranks him dead last among all of Wednesday’s projected starting pitchers. As bad as the Angels are without Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, they should plate a few runs in this game.

The Orioles are more than capable of taking care of the rest. They own a .350 OBP and have scored just under six runs per game over the last 10.

They should be able to do some damage against Patrick Sandoval (.351 xwOBA over the last 30 days). If all else fails, they can look forward to seeing plenty of arms from a bullpen that ranks 28th in xwOBA this past month.

Bet: Over 8.5 (-125)

Lance Lynn under 5.5 strikeouts

Lynn was a strikeout machine in his first few starts with the Dodgers. He has since cooled down in a big way, amassing only five over his last three starts.

The competition has been stiff (Lynn faced the Brewers, Braves, and Red Sox) but, in terms of strikeouts, it is not getting any easier against the Marlins.

Six straight opposing starters have gone under their strikeout total against the Marlins. If we zoom out a little further, nine of the past 11 pitchers faced fell short.

Plenty of data suggests Lynn won’t be the guy to buck the trend. His strike rate is nearly 4% below the league average over the last month. He is inducing swinging strikes just over 10% of the time, which also falls below the league average (12.6%).

Lynn isn’t throwing a ton of strikes and more than 20% of his pitches in the past 30 days were put in play. That opponents are making so much contact against Lynn – whether it’s good contact or not – is a good sign for unders as it takes away plenty of strikeout opportunities.

Odds: -130 (playable to -140)

Logan Gilbert over 17.5 outs

The Mariners aren’t getting much longevity out of their starters right now. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller combined to eat fewer than 19 innings over the past four games, with five being the longest any starter lasted.

That means a lot falls on the bullpen’s plate. The Mariners will want to ease the burden for a day or two and, luckily for them, they have just the guy to provide that opportunity in Gilbert.

He’s recorded at least 18 outs in 10 of his past 13 games, good for a 77% hit rate.

One thing that’s really helped Gilbert’s longevity is his ability to consistently throw strikes. His ball rate is quite low, meaning he hits his targets and wastes very few pitches.

With Gilbert throwing strikes at a sky-high clip and limiting hard contact, he’s equipped to last against a Reds team that has only outscored the Tigers and Royals over the past 10 games.

Odds: -105 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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